Maybe not that much, certainly compared with last year. If inflation has peaked, the pressure on the RBA to hike further should start to reduce somewhat. However, with inflation still well above target, worries that higher than targeted inflation could embed in inflation expectations will be in focus. For us, the key is looking for signs clear signs that the labour market is loosening, rather than tightening. Our central case is that they could pause from February, but it is a close call, and there is a clear risk of another hike or two. This week’s labour market figures for December (due on 19 January) will be particularly important for firming up this view, and quarterly CPI inflation (25 January) will also play a role. We see RBA cuts in 2023 or 2024 as unlikely, but the risk of cuts is clearly higher in 2024 than in 2023.